214. How to Create Suspense

The episode explores suspense and surprise as measurable psychological and economic phenomena, drawing on novelist Harlan Coben's storytelling techniques and an economics paper that models suspense as belief volatility before an event and surprise as belief shifts after. It applies these concepts to sports design, proposing theoretical games that maximize suspense by ensuring every moment could alter outcomes. The discussion extends to news consumption, suggesting people follow it not for information but for narrative suspense.

It offers a rigorous, formal model of suspense and surprise grounded in belief dynamics, applicable beyond fiction to media, sports, and news.

1. 01Suspense arises from uncertainty about how beliefs will change; surprise comes from large, unexpected belief shifts after an event.
2. 02A missing person creates more suspense than a corpse because hope sustains emotional investment and belief volatility.
3. 03Sports like soccer generate high suspense due to constant threat of game-changing moments, unlike basketball or baseball where lulls are predictable.